Iran's Connections in the Middle East

As the threat of war looms larger over the Middle East thanks to Iran's continued pursuit of nuclear weapons, the various actors in the region are beginning to pick sides. Well, to be honest, hardly anyone in the Middle East with any significant power is willing to openly back Israel. More accurately, the various actors in the region are beginning to settle on whether or not they would be involved in such a conflict. Hatred for Israel still burns brightly in the hearts of many of the Jewish nation's neighbors, but other political forces, such as the Arab Spring, are influencing the decision-making of the region's leaders.

As perhaps the poster-boy for the Arab Spring, it seems most appropriate to begin by discussing Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi. Morsi is planning to attend a summit in Iran sometime this month. Since 1979, the year of both Egypt's peace treaty with Israel and Iran's Islamic Revolution, diplomatic relations between the two Muslim nations have been frosty. But Morsi apparently intends to reverse many of the policies of ousted President Hosni Mubarak which threw Egypt's political weight behind other predominantly Sunni regimes such as Saudi Arabia. Whether Morsi's decision to reach out to Shiite Iran indicates worsening relations between Egypt's new leadership and their Sunni neighbors is not yet clear, but Morsi has made several statements attempting to reassure the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula. Only time will tell which side Egypt will commit to joining, but the thawing relationship between Cairo and Tehran should not be ignored.

Meanwhile, it is not exactly news that the economic sanctions against Iran have accomplished something between diddly and squat. Now new reports have been released indicating that two countries, in particular, have been instrumental in providing a way for Tehran to skirt the tough sanctions leveled against the regime: Iraq and Afghanistan. Yes, the two countries in which the United States has been fighting for the past decade and whose governments live and die based on economic aid from Washington have betrayed American efforts to maintain order in the region. The Iraqi banking sector has done shady business with Iranian companies for years despite explicit sanctions prohibiting such activity, helping Tehran maintain a steady cash flow while smuggling oil out of Iran. Afghanistan, meanwhile, has become a popular center for Iranian currency traders looking to get rid of devalued rials in exchange for American dollars, dollars that flow freely as a result of the war and subsequent reconstruction projects paid for by American taxpayers.

On the other side of things, it appears that Hezbollah's stranglehold on Lebanon may be weakening, thanks in no small part to the Syrian civil war. An alleged plot by Syrian leadership to ignite a new civil war in Lebanon by using a campaign of targeted bombings has been discovered. This fact is not unusual given Syria's confrontational and expansionist attitude toward Lebanon, but what is surprising is that the Lebanese have made several stunning arrests, including a friend of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, and indictments of two other Syrian officials. It represents a fundamental shift in Lebanese politics: Lebanon is no longer content to be the errand boys of a regime that may not be in power this time next year. Members of Hezbollah, the country's ruling party and puppet of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, have been strangely quiet about the case. It is likely that even Hezbollah is unwilling to commit to Iran unconditionally until the situation in Syria has stabilized.