Political Chaos in Egypt

When last we met, I discussed the consequences of Mubarak's prison sentence. With the one-time dictator out of the picture (and even recent rumors that Mubarak had died of a stroke), the issue of political succession has taken on renewed importance. Ever since Mubarak left office, a showdown between the old guard of Mubarak supporters and the populist Muslim Brotherhood has loomed large over every political act. Now that showdown has come to a head.

Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi was officially declared the winner of Egypt's heated election. The election, between Morsi and Mubarak's final prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, bitterly divided the nation. Many Egyptians, faced with the choice of supporting what they see as an illegal military-led government or a dangerous theocratic terrorist group, simply boycotted the vote altogether. Reports of domestic violence shot upward as family members physically assaulted (or even killed) one another because of political differences.

Morsi already has an uphill political battle ahead of him. In an unexpected move, the Egyptian military issued a declaration that transferred significant powers from the office of president to the Supreme Council of Armed Forces just hours after the polls closed but before the results had been fully counted. Among these powers include control over the country's budget as well as sweeping legislative authority. Needless to say, that move has sparked a tremendous outcry among the populace of Cairo.

So we have serious tension building in the streets of Cairo. Again. Somewhat worryingly, Muslim Brotherhood member of Parliament Saad al-Katatni declared that the declaration was "null and void" and that it was time for the Egyptians to protect their revolution. Language like that smacks of the theocratic revolution of Iran in 1979, an event that had bad results for the American presence in the Middle East. And I'm not the only one noticing the similarities. Congressman Allen West called on President Obama to cut off all foreign aid to Egypt to protest the Muslim Brotherhood's near-total domination of Egypt's government. "A year ago there were those of us who warned the Obama administration of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover in Egypt," Congressman West wrote on his Facebook page. "Today our predictions have come to reality and the ominous specter reminding us of the Iranian revolution is evident." West also called President Obama "the second coming of President Jimmy Carter..."

Have I mentioned how much I like Congressman West?

Judgment Day for Mubarak

Hello once again to all of my loyal readers. I apologize for being gone so long, but another project (and Star Wars Weekends at Walt Disney World) have taken up more of my time than I had anticipated. Anyway, back into the fray.

For those of you still following the situation in Egypt (which I hope would be the vast majority of you), you know that today is a significant event in modern Egyptian history. Ever since Egypt's former leader Hosni Mubarak was removed from power, his trial and its aftermath have been the topics of heated debate. Would Mubarak supporters in the government skew the result toward a light sentence, or would the revolutionary bloodlust of the populace scare the current leadership into executing the fallen dictator to appease the mob? Well, today we have our answer: Mubarak will serve a life sentence in prison for ordering his police and military to kill protesters.

Many people who suffered under Mubarak's regime, both before and during the uprisings, were glad to see what they considered a fair but properly harsh sentence. However, many more are furious that Mubarak was not executed for his crimes. The trial actually had to be halted at one point when a scuffle broke out between Mubarak supporters and relatives of Mubarak's victims (along with some of the prosecuting attorneys!). Mubarak himself listened to the verdict while on a hospital gurney that had been brought into the courtroom after receiving medical care while in prison awaiting the trial. After the verdict was read, more fighting began in the courtroom and spilled out into the streets. A wave of protests have begun, and by all indications they are just getting started.

So why does this matter? You can be sure that more than a few allies of the United States have been watching this situation with great interest. They are worried that, if similar protests erupt against their rule, the American government may abandon them just as quickly as it had Mubarak. These nations will try to make themselves more valuable allies to the United States in the short-term, but they will also begin to seriously cultivate relationships with other powers like China or Russia (both of whom have been skeptical of the charges against Syria's Assad) who would be willing to support them even if the United States will not. Also, these new protests are undoubtedly being organized with an eye toward influencing the upcoming Egyptian elections. The Muslim Brotherhood has much to gain and little to lose by stirring up resentment against former members of the Mubarak government.

And let us also not forget that Mubarak's life will be in danger until he finally succumbs to causes natural or otherwise. After all, Libya has already established a dangerous precedent in which a hated ex-leader is murdered in cold blood. Now that the people of Egypt feel they have been denied Allah's justice, they will seek to exact it themselves.