More Iran News

Man, I am getting tired of talking about Iran all the time. Every day I read the news and it's, "Iranian leadership says this," and "US officials concerned about Iran's Fill-In-The-Blank." I guess when you've got an almost-nuclear power led by a group of people dedicated to bringing global chaos, it tends to dominate the news cycle. Anyway, with information comes understanding, so let's hope our political leaders are paying attention to what this stuff means and not simply pandering to voters.

Iran's recent military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are incredibly troubling. Tensions are incredibly high between the United States and Iran. American Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in a recent interview that any move by Iran to close the strait would be a "red line for us and... we will respond to them." Many experts believe that these exercises are the Iranian regime's way of lashing out due to the tightening net of sanctions. Others argue that the show of strength was a result of a growing climate of fear within Iran. These fears have only intensified with the assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientists. Before that, a key military base in the heart of Iran was devastated by an explosion, and it is not the first high-security facility to experience such damage. The leaders in Tehran are pointing fingers at Israel and the United States. I however, believe such acts are the work of forces in Iran opposed to the current regime (although I would be surprised if Israel was not actively encouraging, training, and/or supporting opposition groups). After the attempt at a legitimate transfer of power through the Green Revolution in 2009 failed, opposition forces have been forced to take more drastic measures in order to achieve their goals. Daniel Serwer of Johns Hopkins University observed, "The incredible thing is that it continues. That suggests it is Iranians doing the deeds, no matter who is the sponsor. Foreigners are under pretty tight scrutiny in Iran these days." I believe that these acts are being downplayed by the leadership in Washington because they would force the Obama administration to face the consequences of their failure to support a real democratic revolution against an avowed enemy (which is especially damaging considering their enthusiastic support for the violent, chaotic, Islamist Arab Spring which deposed a long-time ally in Egypt).

While the Strait of Hormuz attracted the world's attention, the Iranians were also war-gaming near the border they share with Afghanistan. As the Obama administration continues to look for a path out of Afghanistan, they would be fools not to consider the repercussions of possible Iranian expansion into Afghan territory. Alternatively, depending on the timetable, the Iranians could threaten NATO forces within Afghanistan who are already overextended and weary of the conflict. Meanwhile, the United States has deployed an X-band radar and a small support garrison to Israel in order to be in a better position to react to any Iranian missile launches against Israel or Europe. While this is good news, it also puts US troops in range of rockets from Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza should Iran's proxies decide to strike. This could rapidly escalate the situation and the US troops could even be used as leverage by our enemies if they are not provided sufficient support (by the Pentagon. I do not mean to insult the IDF, or the Pentagon for that matter, but political realities are what they are.)

Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad went on a whirlwind tour of his Latin American allies to further strengthen those relationships. The possibility of a dangerous new front opening within the Western Hemisphere should not be underestimated by leaders in Washington. But there is also some surprising news coming from the Russians, who have expressed regret for allowing the Iranian uranium (trying saying that three times fast) program to get as advanced as it has. If this is anything more than posturing on the part of Russian leadership, it would represent a dramatic shift in policy. The Russians actually built the first nuclear power plant in Iran, and the loss of their support could have repercussions for the Iranian regime.

Iran will continue to dominate foreign policy discussions this year and will be a significant part of the American Presidential race. The situation seems destined for a showdown, but the consequences of that showdown could be more severe than we can imagine. That is why supporting opposition groups and delegitimizing the Iranian regime is so important. The best chance to defuse the situation would be a change of leadership in Iran.