Iran: The Coming Conflict

For over three decades, the Iranian regime has been a major player among the world's bad guys. Granted, at the time of the Iranian Revolution most of the world was still overwhelmingly concerned with a little spat called the Cold War, but we should have been paying attention to the long-term. Iran waged a brutal war with Iraq (hard to know who to root for in that one) and became the key supporter for terrorist groups in the region and beyond. But in the 21st century, the Iranians have upped the ante by seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. While the majority of the speculation focuses on a genocide against Israel (and not without reason), none of the Sunni-majority nations are eager to see the Iranians gain such devastating capabilities. There is a sort of dreadful certainty among anyone paying attention to these events that we are rapidly approaching a point of no return, although what that point looks like and what it will mean are still unclear.

While the world may seem on the brink of war, in some ways the fighting has already started. The Iranians have spent decades playing in the shadows, and their games are starting to get serious. Iranian intelligence services are engaging in an information blitz, trying to dominate the intelligence game in the region from the very start of any conflict. The Iranians have also been working on electronic warfare, which could reduce the advantage of technically superior Israeli or American forces. The Iranians have already hacked the so-called "virtual embassy" set up by the American State Department, and they claim to have taken control of a RQ-170 drone that appears to have crashed in Iran. The Iranians are also growing increasingly fearful of conflict, particularly because of the destabilization of Syria, a key Iranian ally. The Iranian regime has also been heavily invested in a propaganda campaign in the Middle East, and especially in the Arabian Peninsula. But perhaps the most disturbing move made by the Iranian regime has been the recent string of targeted assassinations against Saudi diplomats.

While we watch the Iranians carefully, we must not forget about their proxy groups such as Hezbollah. In fact, one deterrent against an Israeli strike on Iran has been the threat of retribution by Hezbollah forces. The terror group has acquired thousands of rockets, including a large delivery from Syria, and have them aimed at every square inch of Israeli territory. That is a reality Israelis have be forced to deal with for years. Any military action against Iran will likely spark a new war between Israel and the Hezbollah-led Lebanon, with the possibility that Syria may join the fighting (if their troops are not too busy butchering their own people).

As bad as things look at the moment, Israel and the United States (if we get some real leadership in Washington, D.C.) will have unexpected allies against Iranian aggression. The Saudis, who are getting pretty peeved about the whole "assassinations" thing, are one group that we can be reasonably sure will support any action that will eliminate their primary threat in the region. Saudi Arabia is still the powerhouse of the Middle East and does not want to surrender that title to some wacky Persians (and Shias, to boot!). They have even been strengthening their ties to Pakistan (who is also uncomfortably close to Iran and does not want to be stuck between a nuclear Iran and a nuclear India) in the hopes of acquiring a few nuclear weapons of their own as a deterrent to Iranian aggression. The Turkish government has also expressed serious concerns about Iran. Turkish Ambassador Namik Tan said rather pointedly, "We cannot tolerate Iran having a nuclear weapon." However, he didn't go so far as to say, "We'll even support those yucky Jews if we have to."

Yet there may be a path that does not require open warfare and the devastation it will inevitably produce on an already reeling world economy. The major Western powers need to get serious about supporting the Iranian resistance (and, while we're at it, the resistance in Syria, as well). The Iranian regime appears strong, but it is brittle. I have already written about some of the internal vulnerability in my previous post "Modern Janissaries: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps." The Ayhotollahs need to keep their people in fear of the outside so that they will not rise up against them. We need to challenge that. For one thing, Christian evangelism efforts must be stepped up and openly supported by the West. Christianity is spreading quickly in Iran, and recent crackdowns have been a direct result of that surge in popularity. Another problem facing the regime is the widespread series of strikes. The regime has, like all other totalitarian systems, ruined much of the country's economic sector and now is facing some of the consequences. Opposition forces in Iran are better organized than the regime would like to admit, and are believed to be responsible for a series of attacks against Revolutionary Guard bases, refineries, and pipelines.

Whatever we may be doing, the Iranians are certainly getting ready for war. The Revolutionary Guard has been ordered to operational readiness status. The Iranians are alert. The question now is, "Are we?"