The Dictator Is Dead. Long Live the Dictator.

I apologize for my failure to post the last couple of weeks. A combination of distractions and computer malfunctions are to blame, but I will do my best to make up for lost time. Stay tuned over the coming week for more posts, but until then here's something to whet your appetite.

It has been a couple of months since Libyan dictator Moammar Ghaddafi became the former Libyan dictator. Now he has officially become the late Moammar Ghaddafi after a chaotic gun battle in his hometown of Sirte resulted in a fatal wound to the head. The interesting part about this story is that Ghaddafi was captured alive and in relatively good condition before being killed "in the crossfire." I've heard a couple of theories from people skeptical of the official story regarding how a healthy captive became a decidedly unhealthy corpse. There are those who think Ghaddafi was killed by his own side in order to save them the embarrassment of being seen as following a criminal (if he was brought to trial). I think that a complete lack of discipline is to blame, either on the side of the insurgents (or new rulers, I guess) or on the side of Ghaddafi loyalists. But it would not surprise me for one second to find out that orders had come down from the very top of what passes for a chain of command among the Libyan revolutionaries that Ghaddafi was to be executed on the spot.

Ultimately finding who is to blame is not important. The die has been cast, and it is too late to turn back. Ghaddafi's death changed the game for the so-called Arab Spring, which until that point had seen the relatively peaceful transfer of power. This could be an important threshold and, unfortunately, we could see an upswing in violence in the remaining revolutions in the Arab world. After all, the revolutionaries will notice that violence took down Ghaddafi, so they must be wondering why it couldn't take down the government of Syria or Yemen?

An interesting question that I have is, "Okay, what is going to happen to the NATO forces deployed to Libya?" Political leaders around the world have been giving speeches about how the Libyans have now achieved their freedom. That makes for lovely little sound bites, but already the country appears to be devolving along regional and ethnic lines. If that happens we could see a significant upswing in violence as disparate groups fight for territory, resources, and influence rather than work together to properly run Libya's government. In such a case there are really two possible outcomes: the new government is too weak to keep the country from collapse or the new government will crack down on any troublemakers to preempt any civil unrest. Remember, the revolutionaries have not won a contest proving that they are more capable caretakers of Libya than Ghaddafi was. They have simply shown that they are willing and able to use violence to achieve their goals. Is there an actual depth to their abilities, or are they a one-trick pony? Look at the celebrations in Libya because Ghaddafi is dead. Not necessarily that they are free, but that their enemy is no longer living. That is a bit chilling when you think about it. When faced with the challenge of running a troubled nation, the gut reaction of the revolutionaries will be the use of force. And the one who can use that force best will naturally rise to the top. That is not to say they are doomed to a dictatorship, merely that the odds lie heavily stacked against them.

Something has seemed off about the Libyan revolution from the very beginning. I do not think that even a man like Ghaddafi deserved to die like he did, but ultimately it was inevitable. While the world cheers (including some of those who cried foul about bin Laden and al-Awlaki), Libya faces a difficult future. I know that there are many Libyans who sincerely seek a peaceful, stable government without oppression. But will they stand by and watch silently as the new government picks up where Ghaddafi left off as long as they are now the ones with power, or will they continue to stand against anyone who would rule by fear and intimidation? More importantly, how will the new government interact with the extreme Islamist elements at work in North Africa and within their own movement? Would they embrace the idea of a Caliphate with open arms or truly stand for independence?

One final thought: Obama made the announcement to the Libyan people that, "You have won your revolution." If Libya collapses into anarchy, and especially if there is a cry for renewed NATO operations, will we hear the media drone on and on about how mistaken Obama's speech was like they did to George W. Bush's infamous "Mission Accomplished" speech aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln? Then again, it was the same media that ignored the fact that Bush's speech was actually about how much harder things were going to be in Iraq, so perhaps we shouldn't expect too much from them.